"NASA Warns: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a 2.6% Chance of Impact—Should We Be Worried?"

NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have identified asteroid 2024 YR4 as having its highest recorded impact risk yet. NASA estimates a 2.6% chance of impact, while ESA reports a 2.4% probability. If it were to collide with Earth, the expected date would be December 22, 2032. However, experts emphasize that there is no immediate reason for concern.

The asteroid was discovered less than two months ago and is currently moving away from Earth. To accurately determine its future trajectory, astronomers must collect extensive observational data over time. Each new data point slightly shifts the estimated orbit, which is why impact probabilities have fluctuated. Scientists expect the risk to decrease as further observations refine the calculations.

Experts explain that with each update, the asteroid’s projected path shifts—sometimes appearing closer to Earth and other times farther away. The impact odds are expected to stabilize by April when the current observation window closes.

Despite the low threat level, international space agencies remain vigilant. NASA leads the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), which coordinates observations, while ESA chairs the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), responsible for potential deflection strategies.

With an estimated size between 40 and 90 meters, 2024 YR4 could cause significant local damage but is not large enough to pose a global threat. Scientists continue to monitor its trajectory closely, and history has shown that asteroid deflection is possible if needed, as demonstrated by NASA’s DART mission.